← CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship

decks
5 (5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28 13-12-3
overall winrate
51.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2% avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
51.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310 · median 1344 · range 1139–1459 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005 Q1 1171 Q3 1403 1736
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 12.2% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 46.0% -2.3
Water Penguin Mill 10.0% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.2% -1.2
Water Ravishing Mill 8.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.6% +5.8
Fire Aggro 6.7% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 54.0% +2.6
Wind Astra Cleric 6.7% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 38.2% -11.3
Wind Allies 5.6% 0
Water Allies 4.4% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 4.4% 0
Fire Exia 3.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.3% +10.1
Water Silvie 3.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.7% -11.7
Water Tera Mage 3.3% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 3.3% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 50.0% -0.0
Fire Slimes 2.2% 0
Water Crux Mage 2.2% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 2.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.3% -2.6
Fire Arcane 1.1% 0
Fire Neos 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.8
Fire Ravishing Mill 1.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.0% -11.2
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.1% 0
Water Arisanna 1.1% 0
Water Exia 1.1% 0
Water Fractal 1.1% 0
Water Umbra Diana 1.1% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.1% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 31.5% -17.8
Wind Exia 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.2% +16.4
Wind Neos 1.1% 0
Wind Razorgale 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.5% +7.3
Wind Slice & Dice 1.1% 0
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Mystic Purifier, Disintegrate, Fragmented Spirit of Fire. Losers more often ran: Lorraine, Wandering Warrior, Scatter Essence, Library Witch.

Played more by winners
Mystic Purifier
Winning decks ran 2.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Disintegrate
Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Fragmented Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Kongming, Wayward Maven
Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Winning decks ran 3.7 copies on average, losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Harmonious Mantra
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior
Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 1.3 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Library Witch
Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Mystic Purifier +1.00 3 0 0
Disintegrate +1.00 3 0 0
Resolute Stand +0.67 2 0 1
Reduce to Ash +0.67 2 0 1
Mnemonic Charm -0.67 0 2 1
Incarnate Majesty +0.67 2 0 1
Thunderclap +0.67 2 0 1
Nullifying Lantern -0.67 0 2 1
Safeguard Amulet -0.67 0 2 1
Freezing Steel +0.67 2 0 0
Honorable Vanguard +0.67 2 0 0
Fragmented Spirit of Fire +0.33 2 1 0
Spirit of Fire +0.33 1 0 2
Magus Disciple -0.33 0 1 0
Banner Knight -0.33 0 1 0
Ghosts of Pendragon +0.33 1 0 2
Water Resonance Bauble -0.33 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.33 1 0 2
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.33 0 1 0
Tether in Flames -0.33 0 1 0
Orb of Hubris -0.33 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.33 1 0 2
Kongming, Wayward Maven +0.33 2 1 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +0.33 2 1 0
Gloamspire, Black Market -0.33 0 1 0
Fast Cure +0.33 1 0 2
Cremation Ritual +0.33 1 0 2
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.33 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword -0.33 0 1 0
Shard of Empowerment -0.33 0 1 1
Spirit Blade: Ascension +0.33 1 0 2
Clumsy Apprentice -0.33 0 1 0
Drawn Blade +0.33 1 0 2
Harmonious Mantra +0.33 2 1 0
Tariff Ring +0.33 2 1 0
Worn Diary -0.33 0 1 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior -0.33 1 2 0
Scatter Essence -0.33 1 2 0
Library Witch -0.33 1 2 0
Incendiary Fractal -0.33 0 1 0
Purge in Flames +0.33 1 0 1
Focused Flames -0.33 0 1 0
Vanish from Sight -0.33 0 1 0
Chalice of Blood -0.33 0 1 0
Incapacitate -0.33 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -0.33 0 1 0
Heighten Spellcraft +0.33 1 0 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.00 1 1 1
Lavasoul Tiger +0.00 1 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon +0.00 1 1 0
Sudden Steel +0.00 1 1 1
Potion Infusion: Seal +0.00 1 1 0
Hasty Messenger +0.00 1 1 1
Morgan, Soul Guide +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/15367/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage